Communicating Uncertainty about Climate Change: The Scientists’ Dilemma

Scientists’ Uncertainty and Disagreement about Global Climate Change: A Psychological Perspective

Since there are major gaps in scientific knowledge about the greenhouse effect, policy makers are forced to rely on scientists’ judgments about the rate of climate change and its effects. It now appears that significant policy decisions will have to be made despite continuing uncertainty and disagreement among scientists. The best that policy makers can do is look for guidance in the best avail...

Decision making under uncertainty and learning about climate change

Reasoning about climate uncertainty

This paper argues that the IPCC has oversimplified the issue of uncertainty in its Assessment Reports, which can lead to misleading overconfidence. A concerted effort by the IPCC is needed to identify better ways of framing the climate change problem, explore and characterize uncertainty, reason about uncertainty in the context of evidence-based logical hierarchies, and eliminate bias from the ...

Communicating climate change: conduits, content, and consensus

Climate change has been the subject of increasing efforts by scientists to understand its causes and implications; it has been of growing interest to policymakers, international bodies, and a variety of nongovernment organizations; and it has attracted varied amounts of attention from traditional and, increasingly, onlinemedia. These developments have been aligned with shifts in the nature of c...

Uncertainty and Climate Change Policy

Uncertainty is a pervasive feature of climate change analysis. This paper explores the consequences for policymakers. Importantly, uncertainty means that every policy has a range of possible outcomes rather than a single estimate. At a minimum, this requires policymakers to decide how to compare these different outcomes and to determine the likelihood that each outcome occurs. While objective a...